One further thing to add - it's interesting to look at the OBR forecasts in the "Spring Statement 2024 Expenditure and Caseload forecasts".
The 2023/24 figures are still technically OBR forecasts in Spring 2024, but these show that incapacity benefits spending is rising in 2023/24, back to the levels of 2020/21. This is a new trend if it's borne out, as incapacity benefits spending actually went down 2020/1 to 2022/3.
The OBR are then forecasting a slightly larger year-on-year rise to 2024/25, then a smaller rise to 2025/26, and then spending flatlines as a share of GDP. (Which itself suggests a rising caseload if they’re still assuming existing benefits uprating policy continues).
One further thing to add - it's interesting to look at the OBR forecasts in the "Spring Statement 2024 Expenditure and Caseload forecasts".
The 2023/24 figures are still technically OBR forecasts in Spring 2024, but these show that incapacity benefits spending is rising in 2023/24, back to the levels of 2020/21. This is a new trend if it's borne out, as incapacity benefits spending actually went down 2020/1 to 2022/3.
The OBR are then forecasting a slightly larger year-on-year rise to 2024/25, then a smaller rise to 2025/26, and then spending flatlines as a share of GDP. (Which itself suggests a rising caseload if they’re still assuming existing benefits uprating policy continues).