Interestingly, the OBR 2024 Welfare Trends Report (that I blogged about at https://inequalities.substack.com/p/obr-new-welfare-trends-report) did sound more sympathetic to my interpretation above - they say "The greater generosity of incapacity benefits relative to unemployment benefits has not changed materially in this period [since 2018-19], but the large gap may be a more important consideration for potential claimants when cost-of-living pressures are more acute." Figure 3.7 (and the discussion around it) also mentions that the lack of the Severe Disability Premium in UC (compared to ESA) is another issue to be aware of.
This is very interesting and seems to accord with what we know is actually happening, including anecdotally. I have a number of thoughts but not that I can share in a public forum.
Interestingly, the OBR 2024 Welfare Trends Report (that I blogged about at https://inequalities.substack.com/p/obr-new-welfare-trends-report) did sound more sympathetic to my interpretation above - they say "The greater generosity of incapacity benefits relative to unemployment benefits has not changed materially in this period [since 2018-19], but the large gap may be a more important consideration for potential claimants when cost-of-living pressures are more acute." Figure 3.7 (and the discussion around it) also mentions that the lack of the Severe Disability Premium in UC (compared to ESA) is another issue to be aware of.
This is very interesting and seems to accord with what we know is actually happening, including anecdotally. I have a number of thoughts but not that I can share in a public forum.