I've just seen that an IFS report from 2022 also looks at employment transitions after a cut in PIP/DLA (defined as a 10%+ drop in real benefits income) - this is longitudinal data, and can't use a random or quasi-random explanation for reduced benefits, so this is partly about people getting better.
Compared to people whose disability benefits stay the same, they find that those seeing disability benefit drops are 4 percentage points more likely to work in the following year, and 10% percentage points more likely to be working four years later (in both cases with quite wide confidence intervals). As they say, "this is consistent with some people moving off disability benefits as their health
improves, and the reduction in disability benefits encouraging some into work."
EMPLOYMENT RATES
They also use survey data to show the employment rate of PIP/DLA claimants - finding that "In 2019–20, just 15% of disability benefits recipients were working [10% full-time, 5% part-time], compared with 78% of the overall working-age population and 54% of those reporting a disability".
And something else I've since noticed that is relevant here - Steve Fothergill talking about how the geography of DLA claimants (back before PIP) is the same as the geography of incapacity benefit claims, i.e. it's disproportionately in places with struggling labour markets. See https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201012/cmselect/cmworpen/1493/1493we11.htm and the underlying report at https://www.shu.ac.uk/-/media/home/research/cresr/reports/d/dla-claimants-new-assessment.pdf
I've just seen that an IFS report from 2022 also looks at employment transitions after a cut in PIP/DLA (defined as a 10%+ drop in real benefits income) - this is longitudinal data, and can't use a random or quasi-random explanation for reduced benefits, so this is partly about people getting better.
Compared to people whose disability benefits stay the same, they find that those seeing disability benefit drops are 4 percentage points more likely to work in the following year, and 10% percentage points more likely to be working four years later (in both cases with quite wide confidence intervals). As they say, "this is consistent with some people moving off disability benefits as their health
improves, and the reduction in disability benefits encouraging some into work."
EMPLOYMENT RATES
They also use survey data to show the employment rate of PIP/DLA claimants - finding that "In 2019–20, just 15% of disability benefits recipients were working [10% full-time, 5% part-time], compared with 78% of the overall working-age population and 54% of those reporting a disability".
You can find the report at https://ifs.org.uk/publications/living-standards-working-age-disability-benefits-recipients-uk